I added a few small trades to Netflix short in the last day or so ($341 average Hobbs ;-))  for the books) ....trying to work with the clear 50 MA break and see what happens. Combined with a failed rally to the old high ($389)..Netflix rallied to $380 and FAILED...I guess I missed that. Each of these has their own life cycle, they are not tied at the hip.

 

a) Netflix chart clearly fits the parabolic explosion that it saw in 2011

 

    a1)...Netflix is up the needed 4 fold in the move to warrant extreme over-valuation.

 

b) The stock hit $389 in after hours....this is the hard part. Does that count? Netflix rallied to $380 and has since collapsed to $336....so I am guessing the failed rally IS correct.

 

c) Maybe the success of 17 out of 20 means you need A and B above to hit first....a failed rallied but it's not a HIGH percentage short until it breaks the 50 day MA.

 

 

THoughts?