NRE tidbits | CLNS Message Board Posts


Colony NorthStar, Inc.

  CLNS website

CLNS   /  Message Board  /  Read Message

 

 






Keyword
Subject
Between
and
Rec'd By
Authored By
Minimum Recs
  
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board
Msg  7183 of 7185  at  9/20/2018 5:33:53 PM  by

octopusink


 In response to msg 7182 by  octopusink
view thread

Re: NRE tidbits

also

its just so tough because with derivatives involved its not just 1st level straightforward thinking by reading the tape. as in the last post its often 2nd or 3rd level thinking like a MM hedging and then selling that hedge that could have a huge effect on the stock. and that 2nd and 3rd level thinking is almost totally speculative and unable to be proven/seen by the market. and thats whats scary (particularly with smaller stocks), because even when we get the fundamentals right, sometimes the market just goes against you for reasons...

-fundamentals are strong, stock undervalued
-big options bet to capitalize on that
-stock rallies, MM loads up on a big hedge
-rally does okay, but stalls short of goal target
-MM releases unneeded hedge, accelerating decline

did this happen? no idea. totally speculative. but thats the kind of stuff that happens when big options interest gets involved in small time stocks. whatever your view on NRE (bullish or bearish) i think the general price action will be a little more straight forward once the september large OI clears + a little bit of time for the MM to normalize their holdings. obviously interest rates and trade fears and blah, blah, blah can have a big external effect/force on NRE, but i think the potential internal forces on price should be quieter going into the year end, giving NRE a volatility more similar to reits in general going forward. stupid crazy tear your hair out kind of stuff how none of this has a spit to do with NAV or CAD or... but actually might be more important to price.


 printer-friendly     add to library       Recs: 3  
   Views: 132 []
Previous Message  Next Message    Post Message    Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board




Financial Market Data provided by
.
Loading...