The year started off as the one where PM would finally get some currency tailwind instead of headwind. However as of last months earnings call, the dollar strengthening had already wiped that all out, and PM expected negative currency for the year of a negative 7 cents.

 

In the past two weeks the situation has gotten worse for PM.  The Turkish Lira in now in free fall, having lost nearly 50% against the dollar over the past year.  The Russian Ruble has dropped nearly 10% in the past week due to more sanctions and oil price weakness.  And other key emerging market currencies have declined sharply as well.

 

This probably has shaved another 5-10 cents off their earnings for 2018, bringing it likely under $5.00 in EPS. In addition, it bakes in several percentage points of negative currency for the first half of 2019 at well, dragging down yet another year.